Employment-to-Population Ratio
The employment-to-population (E-P) ratio, a proxy for the workforce participation rate, is an important determinant of average per capita income in an area. For areas in which the working-age share of the population is near average, the E-P ratio also is a measure of economic health. The employment-to-population ratio is calculated as total employment divided by total population. Total employment includes an estimate of the number of proprietors as well as the total number of wage and salary workers.
The latest employment-to-population ratio by county is presented on Arizona Indicators, along with data for the same year for the United States, the U.S. metro average, the U.S. nonmetro average, and Arizona. The ratio for Arizona is expressed as a percentage of the national average for each year back to 1969. In addition, the employment-to-population ratio is displayed for each area, beginning with 1969.
Employment data are from the U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). State and national data are reported nine months after the end of a year; county data are released 16 months after the end of a year. Population, expressed as of July 1, is estimated by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. State and national data are reported in December; county data are released in March. The employment and population estimates for the state and nation can be accessed from the BEA website: http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/, table SA04. The county data are accessible at http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/, table CA04.
The employment figures are estimates. Instead of measuring the number of individuals employed, the number of jobs is estimated—a person holding two jobs is counted twice. No distinction is made between full-time and part-time employment.
Population estimates for 2000 through 2010 have been revised for the nation and Arizona based on the 2010 census count, but the revisions for the counties have not yet been released.
Employment-to-Population Ratio, 2009
Visualization Notes:
Reasonable targets for Arizona are for the state’s employment-to-population ratio to be within 5 percent of the national average, for the larger metro counties to have a figure within 5 percent of the U.S. metro average, and for the nonmetro counties to have a figure within 5 percent of the nonmetro average.
The most recent data for the employment-to-population ratio by county are for 2009, a recessionary year. These estimates remain subject to revision, particularly with the population estimates not yet revised based on the 2010 census results. The preliminary data indicate that the employment-to-population ratio in 2009 was greater than the U.S. metro average in only one of the state’s seven metropolitan counties and was not within 5 percent in any other county. In only one of the eight nonmetro counties did the figure exceed the U.S. nonmetro average; none of the other counties were within 5 percent.
Employment-to-Population Ratio in Arizona as a Percentage of the National Average
Visualization Notes:
A reasonable target is for Arizona’s employment-to-population ratio to be within 5 percent of the national average. This was the case from 1984 through 1988. Otherwise, the employment-to-population ratio in Arizona generally has been between 6 percent and 9 percent below the national average, with the ratio somewhat cyclical, being higher during economic expansions. However, the 2010 figure was at a record low, 11 percent less than the national average.
Employment-to-Population Ratio
Visualization Notes:
The employment-to-population ratio nationally and in Arizona has increased substantially over the last 40 years, with decreases occurring only during economic recessions. Increasing workforce participation among women was the primary factor pushing the ratio higher during the 1970s and 1980s. Since then, the changing age distribution has been a major factor. Gains in the ratio likely will end when the baby-boom generation retires.
The employment-to-population ratio dropped an unusual amount between 2007 and 2010, reflecting the length and depth of the recession. The ratio fell considerably more in Arizona than the national average.
Data Source
Employment data are from the U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). State and national data are reported nine months after the end of a year; county data are released 16 months after the end of a year. Population, expressed as of July 1, is estimated by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. State and national data are reported in December; county data are released in March. The employment and population estimates for the state and nation can be accessed from the BEA website: http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/, table SA04. The county data are accessible at http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/, table CA04.
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